Probability Simulation Memo

To ensure that the watches sent for certification clear the tests 90 percent of the time the two following upgrades and one purchase are needed.

* Upgrade Poising Machine

* Upgrade Timing Machine

* Buy Customized Movement Holders

The purchase and upgrades will lead to passing the three tests that the watches fail frequently which test the accuracy of the watch in different positions. The poising machine is used to poise the balancing wheel. Poising is important to determine the accuracy of the movement in different positions (University of Phoenix, 2003). By upgrading the current poising machine will lead to better accuracy of the watch in different positions. The timing machine is an "indispensable tool for watchmakers" (University of Phoenix, 2003) that helps test the movement's performance. The timing machine is used as a diagnostic when assembling the movement. By upgrading the current timing machine during assembly the machine will help watchmakers control accuracy which will assist with receiving SOCC certification. The final purchase of customized movement holders will also ensure that the watches sent or certification clears the tests 90 percent of the time. Customized movement holders increase the accuracy of movement in different positions.

Jean Dubois' recommendations were taken into consideration. Since we were failing test that involve testing movement in different positions upgrading both the poising machine and timing machine was important. Jean Dubois' recommendations of upgrading both machines were followed. Amanda Hamilton's recommendation to focus on the water resistance of the watches and purchase a deep water simulation was considered but at this time I believe it is not the right decision. We need to focus the attention of fixing the watches to ensure SOCC certification. We need to invest in machines that will help us achieve the 90 percent confidence interval that Howard Gray has set. Water resistance capability may be a future endeavor that we may want to look at however now is not the time. The recommendation from Uma Gardener was also followed. Uma Gardner recommended the purchase of customized movement holders and also recommended the upgrade of the poising machine. Both will help us achieve SOCC standards in both vertical and horizontal positions.

...